Ferts Back on the Radar…
Nothing worthy of note this week but we did want to introduce our February Happy Hour guest at the very least… We finally roped in our good friend Le Shrub to join us to chat macro and dive into an interactive Q&A with KEDM community. Shrub is an O.G. KEDM’er having been one of the…
Fund Flows Flip
Things may be light over the next couple weeks as we are in South Florida taking meetings during the annual iConnections pilgrimage. In our typical fashion, we don’t pay the 20k entry price to roam the halls, but rather sit with a cold beer at a local bar and laugh as the sleeveless vests descend…
The Year of the Snake…
We are going to keep the commentary light this week as you have plenty of reading to do with the Happy Hour transcripts. However, last week we noted our increasing interest in the China theme when we wrote: “After stopping out on a lot of our China exposure in Q4, we’re back at it. We…
Where Did the Margin Go??
Our thinking hasn’t changed since last week, but this week’s price action is worth revisiting. In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that the wheels were coming off the tech bubble and spending on networking was about to fall off a cliff, to…
Mean-reversion is imminent…
Last week, we showed the 1 chart to rule them all. It was the chart of Q4/Q1 of 2021/2022 overlayed with the current market tracking almost perfectly. Since then, this year has tracked reasonably well (shocking…). If the comparison holds, then the selling starts this week when everyone gets back from vacation. Though, we’re willing…
Quick Update on Offshore…
Let’s quickly turn over to offshore. We’ll have more to say in a future edition, as this has gotten long-winded already, but given the equity performance we’d be remiss to not mention it. Much like Naz is peaking in the final days of December, we think offshore is bottoming. We’ve basically tossed a lot of…
More Bear Porn…
Once you look at this chart, you simply cannot unsee it. Our good friend, Kevin “The Macro Tourist” Muir sent this to us during the Wednesday Fed smash. It accurately predicted the subsequent ripper on Friday. If it goes to analog, it likely continues for a few days, then death. Kevin has been harping on…
The Bell is Ringing…
The commentary will be quite light this week (i.e. non-existent) as our entire team is nursing hangovers from our annual holiday party last night. Needless to say, our thinking hasn’t changed much since our piece last week. If anything we kept hearing even more bells ringing the top this week, as Mike Saylor and Palantir…
Bear Porn…
Let’s turn to the markets. Since early summer, KEDM went into full “harvest mode,” cleaving off the chaff and moved to center book. We weren’t outright bearish but envisioned volatility coming into play over summer and into the elections. While that didn’t serve us well in the short-term (looking at you offshore…) we’d rather err…
Let’s chat Turkey…
Regular KEDM readers have likely picked up on our growing bullishness for some specific EMs. We all know the chart by now but the US is stretched as NVDA and MSTR prop up the whole market. And as DMs become EMs, emerging markets should see a flip in fund flows with EMs finally “emerging.” Since…