The Bell is Ringing…
The commentary will be quite light this week (i.e. non-existent) as our entire team is nursing hangovers from our annual holiday party last night. Needless to say, our thinking hasn’t changed much since our piece last week. If anything we kept hearing even more bells ringing the top this week, as Mike Saylor and Palantir…
Bear Porn…
Let’s turn to the markets. Since early summer, KEDM went into full “harvest mode,” cleaving off the chaff and moved to center book. We weren’t outright bearish but envisioned volatility coming into play over summer and into the elections. While that didn’t serve us well in the short-term (looking at you offshore…) we’d rather err…
Let’s chat Turkey…
Regular KEDM readers have likely picked up on our growing bullishness for some specific EMs. We all know the chart by now but the US is stretched as NVDA and MSTR prop up the whole market. And as DMs become EMs, emerging markets should see a flip in fund flows with EMs finally “emerging.” Since…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
LatAm will roar…
Trump won!! Naturally, we wonder if we’re positioned right for what comes next. What does Round 2 look like?? Is it like Round 1 where he spends most of the day golfing, and occasionally tweeting about how great the market is?? (Remember those 150bps rippers every afternoon??) Or does he actually try and Make America…
China’s “Whatever it takes” Moment – The Year of the Dragon
What the hell is going on over in China?? First, they detonated their real estate sector. Remember how homes are for living in, not speculating?? Then, they locked down for germs (you can’t be a superpower if you’re scared of the common cold). Finally, they crowned Xi as king, right after the party congress/purge.…
The Buyside Monitor aka The BSD
Hedge fund letter season is fast approaching and we are gearing up for pages of deep value sh*tcos pitches and fancy numbers that prove being down 20% is still a win because they did it with less volatility and risk. That said, we do get some value skimming the thoughts of the industry. There is…
Costco Marks the Bottom – Is Platinum About to Shine?
You all know we remain commodity bulls and have beaten a dead horse on gold since we got interested in it again in Q3 of 2023. As the world enters chaos with DMs becoming EMs, gold should remain relatively bid. And with silver finally waking up, its worth moving through the family tree over to…
Bond Quickie
Last we left you, we were talking about how the FED and bonds were fuct and EMs were likely the recipients of a flip in fund flows. Two weeks don’t make a trend but that sure seemed timely as TLT continues to roll on the back of made-up NFP numbers, while EMs (i.e. China) went…
EMs Take the Spotlight
JPOW pulled the trigger on re-engaging Project Zimbabwe. We’ve been banging the table on the peasants getting carved up, hence our de-grossing, but we were a bit surprised on how trigger happy he was with equity markets clipping highs. Just goes to show how bad the FED is fuct. I tweeted this out earlier…