Short week, so it’ll be a short, data-only KEDM this week. Besides, nothing is going to change our view over the coming weeks. Sure, a TON of volatility but our thinking remains the same. This tariff story is an undercard to upcoming big govt credit/PE/private credit/refi/endowment unwind. We are headed into a trader and ED market (vs buy and hold) so it may get a bit quiet on the thematic commentary pages going forward, as there is not much to say until this truly unfolds. Once we flush and Trump and Co. reignites animal spirits into mid-terms, we will hope to be levered long some select thematics. Until then, we cashed up and ready for some pin action…
As a reminder to some of our new KEDM’ers, KEDM was launched as a data-driven Event Driven newsletter, with a team of analysts rummaging through filings and tracking hard to find data series. This was never intended to be a “macro” newsletter (for all your daily dose of bad macro takes, just head over to Fintwit if you need your weekly fix…) We think in big secular macro and inflections that take months or years to play out versus a weekly publication schedule. There are times when there are TONS of new thematics, and other times when we go through droughts lasting months. Point is, we think we are headed into a “correlation of 1” regime with multiples compressing regardless of fundys, and in this volatile environment ED will likely reign. That isn’t to say we are totally bailing on our core (e.g. EM/non-US, inflation and old economy names), we just think new ideas will be in the form of shorter duration (such as our shorts in tech and counter trend long bond trade in Q1 even though bonds are fuct…). We hope to be levered long once we ultimately turn, and we will be on these pages letting you know our thoughts, but until then, sit tight and enjoy the ride…
Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.
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Correlations to 1
A low frequency but juicy strategy where the edge is government incompetence.
Let’s dig in…
Short week, so it’ll be a short, data-only KEDM this week. Besides, nothing is going to change our view over the coming weeks. Sure, a TON of volatility but our thinking remains the same. This tariff story is an undercard to upcoming big govt credit/PE/private credit/refi/endowment unwind. We are headed into a trader and ED market (vs buy and hold) so it may get a bit quiet on the thematic commentary pages going forward, as there is not much to say until this truly unfolds. Once we flush and Trump and Co. reignites animal spirits into mid-terms, we will hope to be levered long some select thematics. Until then, we cashed up and ready for some pin action…
As a reminder to some of our new KEDM’ers, KEDM was launched as a data-driven Event Driven newsletter, with a team of analysts rummaging through filings and tracking hard to find data series. This was never intended to be a “macro” newsletter (for all your daily dose of bad macro takes, just head over to Fintwit if you need your weekly fix…) We think in big secular macro and inflections that take months or years to play out versus a weekly publication schedule. There are times when there are TONS of new thematics, and other times when we go through droughts lasting months. Point is, we think we are headed into a “correlation of 1” regime with multiples compressing regardless of fundys, and in this volatile environment ED will likely reign. That isn’t to say we are totally bailing on our core (e.g. EM/non-US, inflation and old economy names), we just think new ideas will be in the form of shorter duration (such as our shorts in tech and counter trend long bond trade in Q1 even though bonds are fuct…). We hope to be levered long once we ultimately turn, and we will be on these pages letting you know our thoughts, but until then, sit tight and enjoy the ride…
Happy Easter and Chag Pesach Sameach.
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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.