Turning to the markets, we don’t make market calls here at KEDM but we can’t help feel something a bit off in the market. The fukwits seem back in charge. Generally we are all for taking money from the crayon eaters but it feels a bit different this time around. Breadth is still ok’ish but internals look sloppy. Russ2k still lagging, trannies chopping and rolling, VIX clipping lows and spoo ex-Mag (~31% of S&P) feeling a bit like a failing rally (chart below).
While we only focus on themes and Event Driven at KEDM, I have to admit the risk/reward on almost everything on our blotter just isn’t what it was after a ripping H1. There are times when it’s obvious and we press the trade, and obvious times it just isn’t. So as we head into summer, and what will likely be a chaotic election period, we are in full harvest mode. It’s time to degross, move to center book and cleave off the “ehhh.” We have a hunch that we’ll want all the liquidity we can get when vol starts to pick up as the Orange Man takes center stage.
We will still be hunting for new themes and catalyst-driven ED but we are raising the bar for inclusion. As I’ve noted in the past, there will again be a time to absolutely max it out and I want to do so with clean book, clear perspective and loads of liquidity.
Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.
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Harvest Time!!!
A low frequency but juicy strategy where the edge is government incompetence.
Let’s dig in…
Turning to the markets, we don’t make market calls here at KEDM but we can’t help feel something a bit off in the market. The fukwits seem back in charge. Generally we are all for taking money from the crayon eaters but it feels a bit different this time around. Breadth is still ok’ish but internals look sloppy. Russ2k still lagging, trannies chopping and rolling, VIX clipping lows and spoo ex-Mag (~31% of S&P) feeling a bit like a failing rally (chart below).
While we only focus on themes and Event Driven at KEDM, I have to admit the risk/reward on almost everything on our blotter just isn’t what it was after a ripping H1. There are times when it’s obvious and we press the trade, and obvious times it just isn’t. So as we head into summer, and what will likely be a chaotic election period, we are in full harvest mode. It’s time to degross, move to center book and cleave off the “ehhh.” We have a hunch that we’ll want all the liquidity we can get when vol starts to pick up as the Orange Man takes center stage.
We will still be hunting for new themes and catalyst-driven ED but we are raising the bar for inclusion. As I’ve noted in the past, there will again be a time to absolutely max it out and I want to do so with clean book, clear perspective and loads of liquidity.
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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.