KEDM Lite Vol. 10

A low frequency but juicy strategy where the edge is government incompetence.

Let’s dig in…

This week’s additions and highlights


1. SPIN-OFFS

  • AB Foods (ABF LN). Generally, it is too large for Lite (and thus KEDM Pro material), but still good to flag. Interesting day today (April 21) for AB Foods, with the company confirming plans to separate Primark from its food operations. Primark generates over half of group profit, and a spin should unlock some of that SOTP value given its higher growth and profitability still murked by the rest of the business, alongside the usual holdco discount.
  • First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX US). AnaptysBio completed the spin of First Tracks. The set-up here is interesting in that it separated ANAB’s royalty business from its clinical stage biotech unit. These two should have much different sizes, fundamentals and thus valuations. ANAB now holds and continues to manage the rights to the (potentially) substantial Jemperli royalties from GSK and imsidolimab milestones and royalties from Vanda (VNDA). As expected, TRAX is showing strong volatility, moving over +30% in a few days and giving that all back recently. Fwiw, UBS initiated with a $45 p/s target price, compared to ~$19 today.
  • Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG NO). Kongsberg Gruppen has proposed spinning off its Kongsberg Maritime business in a separate stock market listing and consolidating its Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace and Kongsberg Discovery units into a single technology and defense company. It is a very interesting time of course for this, given the massive re-ratings of European defense stocks. Also given the industry (shipbuilding) the various units could be valued quite differently. Kongsberg shares corrected quite a bit recently. Spin targeted for H1.

    UPDATE (April 21, 2026) Kongsberg Maritime (KMAR) will start trading separately on April 23. Kongsberg also recently held a capital markets day. Good times to be invested in European defense companies. Worth taking a look.


2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS

(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)

  • Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM US). RYAM launched strategic alternatives review after CEO Scott Sutton abruptly resigned. The company hired Morgan Stanley for the review. Chair Lisa Palumbo said recent unsolicited expressions of interest triggered the review. Chemicals are facing tough markets. But it does have some interesting tech. <10x forward EV/EBITDA on arguably through 0 cycle earnings doesn’t seem much at all.
  • Evoke plc (EVOK LN). Evoke is a leveraged European gambling operator now exploring strategic alternatives after years of damage from the William Hill deal, regulatory tightening, higher taxes, and messy integration. Market headwinds continue, and a sale of the international online assets looks like the cleanest fix, potentially unlocking some serious SOTP value. UPDATE (March 24, 2026) Evoke mentioned that it is close to concluding its review, disclosing that it is in talks on a potential sale. They also mentioned that 2026 has started off positively, in line with expectations.

    UPDATE (April 21, 2026) Another one of our recent flags that is quickly moving. Evoke recently confirmed that it is talking with Bally’s Intralot (BYLOT GA) over a potential share + cash takeover, valuing the company at ~50p per share. This compares to 40.5p today and 26.9p since our flag a few months ago. Bally’s has until May 18 to decide whether to make a firm offer.

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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.