KEDM Lite Vol. 15

A low frequency but juicy strategy where the edge is government incompetence.

Let’s dig in…

This week’s additions and highlights


1. SPIN-OFFS

  • S&P Global (SPGI US). A reminder of the upcoming spin of S&P Global’s Mobility division. This is a high-quality asset with little overlap with SPGI’s core business, guided by 7.5%-10% organic revenue and 8-11% EBITDA growth. So, the spin seems to make sense and should unlock value. However, after the SaaSPocalypse it’s hard to say whether this will trade at the multiple it deserves. Trading around June 26 (MBGL).
  • Enviri (NVRI US). Enviri announced that it will evaluate ‘value creation alternatives’ including a sale or separation of the Clean Earth business as it seeks ‘to close the persistent gap between Enviri’s public market valuation and the company’s sum-of-the-parts value’. Little growth, quite some debt and large divestment (if not full sale) could make this one quite interesting. UPDATE (May 12, 2026) Enviri approved the $3bn sale of its Clean Earth business to Veolia. Not bad for a $3.2bn EV company. This brings it much closer to spinning off its Environmental and Rail businesses (to be called New Enviri) before closing the sale, with a target of mid‑2026. As previously flagged, New Enviri is expected to generate about $1.2bn revenue and $140m EBITDA with 2x net leverage. There’s room for earnings and cash‑flow improvement as end markets recover and legacy project contracts roll off. This remains an interesting case with solid upside and a very decently protected downside.

    UPDATE (May 26, 2026) Enviri will complete the sale of its Clean Earth business and its spins on June 1. Shareholders will get ao $15 p/s in cash. See our previous discussion on the company and the spins.

  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA GY). Thyssenkrupp is considering the exit of its materials trading unit, possibly via a spin. This is interesting given the size of the unit (16k FTE, €12bn revenues and €200m ebitda), which could fetch €2bn. To note that Thyssenkrupp is trading at a €2.7bn EV and €5.7bn market cap, with the company also working on other disposals. UPDATE (June 23, 2025) Thyssenkrupp’s transformation continues, with the company approving the spin-off of a 49% minority state in Marine Systems. Approval will be on 8/8 shareholder meeting. We would again suggest keeping this one assessed given the big transformative plans there are pushed through. UPDATE (July 14, 2025) We flag Thyssenkrupp’s recent agreement with labor union, effectively signing the restructuring, as well as the ‘security agreement’ with the government regarding the TKMS spin. A reminder that TKA is effectively dismantling. The shares are moving but there remains a ton to gain ioo.

    UPDATE (May 26, 2026) It looks like the next one (TK Materials) is up. Thyssenkrupp is said to be looking for an investor vote over the next few months re its Material Services spin. Not the best markets, but that might be exactly what makes it an interesting opportunity.


2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS

(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)

  • Selvita (SLV PW). Selvita (launched a strategic review after another weak quarter. This is a small but interesting one. Selvita has two segments, Drug Development, which shows healthy growth, and Drug Discovery, which is under pressure. This is reflected in a split backlog. Back when the business was growing, Selvita was trading at over 20x EV/EBITDA, compared to <10x today. We could see some nice value unlock on a sale of Drug Discovery, with a rerating of the rest of the business…

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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.