KEDM Lite Vol. 18
A low frequency but juicy strategy where the edge is government incompetence.
Let’s dig in…
This week’s additions and highlights
1. SPIN-OFFS
- Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT US). Adaptive will separate its MRD and Immune Medicine businesses, aiming to focus on MRD diagnostics while exploring strategic and structural options for Immune Medicine. The separation is expected to move swiftly, expected by year‑end 2026. To support the move Adaptive is also planning a $250m convertible‑notes offering to finance a bunch of stuff (capped‑call transactions, $25m buybacks, repayment of OrbiMed obligations, MRD growth initiatives).
- Core Lithium (CXO AU). Core Lithium will spin out its Northern Territory and South Australia gold-exploration assets (’Axiant Resources’). Core keeps all lithium rights and will hold a meaningful equity stake in Axiant and so remaining a lithium‑only producer. The spin is targeted for July–August. Always interesting to keep these different metal spins on the watchlist, certainly when the core business is close to ramping revenues.
2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS
(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)
- Banqup (BANQ BB). Banqup launches a ‘strategic simplification plan’, exploring a split of its business units and potential divestments or even a full group sale. This is all the result of an eight‑month strategic review, to basically conclude ‘something must happen here’. Banqup is having a horrible year so far, not helped by AI-related fears. That said this is indeed a business that several different units, some of which could fetch a nice valuation, such as the core e‑invoicing unit (profitable, cash‑generative and set to benefit from mandatory e‑invoicing in France, Germany and Spain).
- Braemer Hotels & Resorts (BHR US). Braemer will try to go at it alone. The hotel REIT ended its strategic review without a sale, and will terminate its advisory agreement with Ashford, shifting to a self‑managed REIT structure. The idea here is that simplifying the company (cutting costs, improving governance, restructuring the portfolio) is a better outcome than selling the business. We’re not that convinced. But all current directors will step down. Braemar intends to focus on a 6–8‑property luxury portfolio and is evaluating three additional asset sales to complete its separation from Ashford and strengthen long‑term profitability. Isn’t there also a potential $480m termination fee owed to Ashford (the external advisor controlled by the company’s chairman) now? Feels like this isn’t over…
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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (“KEDM”) is not a financial or investment advisor and the information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal, accounting, or text advice or individually-tailored investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The investments discussed in this publication may not be suitable for you. You are required to conduct your own due diligence, analyses, draw your own conclusions, and make your own investment decisions. Any areas concerning legal, accounting, or tax advice or individually-tailored investment advice should be referred to your lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, investment advisers, or other professionals registered or otherwise authorized to provide such advice. KEDM makes no recommendations whatsoever regarding buying, selling, or holding a specified security, a class of securities, or the securities of a class of issuers, and all commentary is for educational purposes only. The investment examples noted are intended to provide and example of the events and data KEDM flags each week and is not representative of typical returns generated by each event or any future returns.