Some highlights from this weekend’s Event Driven Monitor
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The Event of the Week
KEDM’s Alloy Index
Last June we introduced the aerospace alloy theme as a play on the surging demand for new planes, thinking at the time that this bull could turn into a super-cycle given the supply issues on such robust demand. Well, our alloy index has been on a tear (see chart above) so we figured it was about time for an update and asked our analyst to give us the lay of the land in 2024…
2023 was a record-breaking year fueled by a global travel upswing, airlines’ strategic focus on fleet modernization for enhanced fuel efficiency, and optimistic forecasts for medium to long-term growth in air travel. In 2024, aircraft orders have started off the year pretty soft, as evidenced by Boeing’s challenging January, during which it recorded net zero aircraft orders.
Despite this slow start and the obvious challenges for Boeing, demand for specialty alloys used in aerospace and defense applications remains strong. We’re hearing through our channel-checks that lead times on certain aerospace bar products exceed 95 weeks from some of the mills. The pubcos are continuing to guide for massive earnings growth as they continue to push significant price increases and volume increases…
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Kuppy’s Tweet of the Week
We’ve barely finished the primaries and Biden is already leaning on the Fed…
Chart and Kliff Note of the Week
The much anticipated ARM IPO lock-up is this week (March 12). The current float is 102.5 million shares, with SoftBank owning the remaining ~930 million shares. BUT, big but, 769m of those shares will still “unsellable” since they’re backing a facility
Will this be the first big rush for the exit in semiconductors or will Masa hold strong???
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Friends of KEDM
- FinTwitter Parrot Capital made a great list of resources on everything from banking, to macro, to fraud, and of course Event-Driven/Special sits. We were pleased to make the list for Event-Driven and think the whole list is worth a share.
- Our friend Le Shrub is keeping up his podcast circuit run with this episode of Know Your Risk Radio from Zach Abraham where he gives “a boomer’s guide to AI.”
Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor scans over 20 corporate events for market moving information and distills them into our propietary “Kliff Notes.” One profitable trade should more than cover an annual subscription and access to the Event Driven chatroom!