Some highlights from this weekend’s Event Driven Monitor
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The Event of the Week
We just got off the plane from a VERY long couple of weeks of client meetings plus the Pareto Offshore Conference over in Oslo. While in the air, we got caught up with a ton of Substack reading, and one that caught our attention was from our good friend Paulo Macro.
What happens when the supply of paper begins to overwhelm the demand for new issue? When the IPO pop isn’t sustained and deals begin to break pricing?? What happens when the window slams closed? And what happens when all the insiders/PE shares unlock? We traded this theme in the early 2000s and 2020s and is one of the reasons we track Unlocks and Completed IPOs (and Busted IPOs) at KEDM both as a broad topping indicator and for idiosyncratic trades.
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Kuppy’s Tweet of the Week
Chart and Kliff Note of the Week
CEO Changes Monitor: The CEO at continuous glucose monitor manufacturer DexCom (DXCM) announced that he will be taking a temporary medical leave of absence, effective immediately. He’ll be replaced by the current President and COO on an interim basis. This name used to be a hedge fund darling but with the stock – 12% YTD and off 60% from the ATHs it has clearly seen better days. BUT its worth noting that Connor over at Alta Fox came out to defend against the Hunterbrook short hit piece and is on the bid – “we are buying $DXCM today. Good, growing biz trading at roughly 1/2 the fwd multiple of $PODD. Sensational short claims, zero credible evidence.”
13D Monitor: Lakeview just fired a 13d/a on CVGI, pushing for a full strategic review and sale. Management hasn’t countered yet, so we’re in inning one, but the setup screams small-cap industrial, underfollowed, cheapish, with easy catalysts.
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Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor scans over 20 corporate events for market moving information and distills them into our propietary “Kliff Notes.” One profitable trade should more than cover an annual subscription and access to the Event Driven chatroom!