Dead Cat Bounce
Once you see a chart, you sometimes struggle to un-see it… This is the Naz during the 2000 tech bubble. Now let’s look at the GFC. Note a pattern? A smash, then consolidate, then leak lower until the real selling starts. It’s almost a chart crime to then pull up 1929, but we can’t help…
An Important Gloom and Doom PSA….
It’s said that there’s no such thing as a quadruple bottom in finance. That’s terrifying as TLT (yeah, we know only retail track it…) looks to be teasing a 4th bottom. We’re increasingly of the view that TLT fails. When that happens, we really don’t know WTF happens. Just think about all the things that…
Tina died in 2025…
Speaking of tops, on January 12, we posted an eerie chart of CSCO against the last remaining generals left in the markets using SMH as the proxy (we urge you to re-read here). Let’s revisit: “In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that…
Trump 2.0
Turning to the markets, the secret to successful investing is the art of having strong views, loosely held. For the better part of our careers, we’ve been bearish bonds. “Project Zimbabwe” and all that jazz. However, we’re open to other views… Over the past month, we have been astounded by the progress made by Trump,…
Mean-reversion is imminent…
Last week, we showed the 1 chart to rule them all. It was the chart of Q4/Q1 of 2021/2022 overlayed with the current market tracking almost perfectly. Since then, this year has tracked reasonably well (shocking…). If the comparison holds, then the selling starts this week when everyone gets back from vacation. Though, we’re willing…
October 6, 2024, Vol. 195
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Bond Quickie
Last we left you, we were talking about how the FED and bonds were fuct and EMs were likely the recipients of a flip in fund flows. Two weeks don’t make a trend but that sure seemed timely as TLT continues to roll on the back of made-up NFP numbers, while EMs (i.e. China) went…
Times Are A Changin’….
We’re changing our tune a bit here at KEDM. After spending years alone in the desert thinking that Fiscal trumps everything else, and laughing at all the recession lunatics who were shorting at the lows in 2022, we now feel that our desert island is getting a bit crowded. Too many Macro bros suddenly agree…