Correlations to 1
Short week, so it’ll be a short, data-only KEDM this week. Besides, nothing is going to change our view over the coming weeks. Sure, a TON of volatility but our thinking remains the same. This tariff story is an undercard to upcoming big govt credit/PE/private credit/refi/endowment unwind. We are headed into a trader and ED…
An Important Gloom and Doom PSA….
It’s said that there’s no such thing as a quadruple bottom in finance. That’s terrifying as TLT (yeah, we know only retail track it…) looks to be teasing a 4th bottom. We’re increasingly of the view that TLT fails. When that happens, we really don’t know WTF happens. Just think about all the things that…
Liberation Day
We were all looking forward to Liberation Day. We even had something of a celebration planned. Honestly, we thought Trump would do a flat tariff. Maybe something in the 10-20% range. Instead, he came out swinging. He literally carpet bombed every CUSIP. We don’t blame him. These tariffs are the right thing to do—though he…
Erdy does it again…
Turning to the markets, by now you are well aware of our EM leanings as we have been beating a dead horse for well over 6 months on the theme. One of those EMs has been making some global news lately, so we figured we’d do a quick update. Let’s dig in… You’ve probably seen…
Trump Goes Mining…
We’ve always wondered why they let Trump win, after blocking him in 2020. And don’t think it’s about him getting more votes, it’s ALWAYS about who counts the votes. Call it a pet theory, but the oligarchs and Deep State types watched as the Russians steamroll a few NATO armies in Ukraine, watched the Russians…
Betting on the degens…
Turning to the markets, our themes seem to be kicking into high gear as EMs continue to suck flows out of the US. We expect some rips out of the US, but there is more pain ahead in ’25 as TINA (for US growth) doesn’t just take a month to die, this will take some…
Tina died in 2025…
Speaking of tops, on January 12, we posted an eerie chart of CSCO against the last remaining generals left in the markets using SMH as the proxy (we urge you to re-read here). Let’s revisit: “In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that…
EMs Curling Up…
Since mid-to-late 2024 we have been banging the table on EMs, specifically Turkey, Colombia, Brazil and China. See issues 197 and 209 for China; 210 and 200 for LatAm. YTD the latter 3 have been on a tear with China up 25%, Brazil up nearly 13%, and Colombia up 22%. While stretched in short term…
Colombia and Brazil are perking up…
Last week we left you on the topic of Brazil, so LatAm has been on our mind all week, especially with Trump laying out a heavy dose of FAFO during the week… Lets rehash…This week began with a bang in Latin America as Trump came out swinging on Colombia after they refused to accept a…
Trump 2.0
Turning to the markets, the secret to successful investing is the art of having strong views, loosely held. For the better part of our careers, we’ve been bearish bonds. “Project Zimbabwe” and all that jazz. However, we’re open to other views… Over the past month, we have been astounded by the progress made by Trump,…