We are going to keep this pretty short as we are currently boarding a plane in Dubai for Hong Kong. In HK, we are teaming up with our good friend and fellow hedgie, Roderick van Zuylen (aka Roojoo), for a string of management meetings and to attend a Macro thematic conference (if you are HK based, give us a shout). In past KEDMs we have discussed our preference for (and nailed) Emerging Markets (here), Hong Kong (here) and China (here). We even did a Happy Hour with Louis Gave on China (here). So we figured we would follow that up with some boots on the ground and firm up our views of China and Hong Kong and hopefully get a laundry list of new ideas pitched at the Macro thematic conference.
Once we get back in the saddle, we’ll put pen to paper and discuss our views and new themes. While we are bears on the US, international markets are shaping up for some solid thematic inflections, so they’ll be a lot to unpack. Stay tuned…
Before we take off for HK, some of you have asked our views of the pet rock after a massive run. A reader (h/t MW) reminded us of our April 2024 missive where we discussed this exact scenario. Worth a re-read in its entirety here….but to paraphrase:
“How do we know when the intermediate top has come?? We want to see JM Bullion and Apmex get overrun with buy orders. We want to see this guy on the way home from work…
…and we want all the tech bros to become gold bros.”
Let’s fast forward to today and leave you with a few updated charts from that April ’24 post.
How do we know when the intermediate top has come??
Well gold stories have skyrocketed since we last posted this chart…
GLD Shares outstanding have went parabolic….
Ross is taking victory laps….
And gold buyers are queued up…
We don’t make buy/sell recommendations at KEDM, and we like the theme over time, but sentiment has certainly inflected since April 2024 and take away from that what you will… We have our Krugerrands and long term holds but the next leg will likely only come after a significant detour: a bust that forces central banks into their final capitulation.
Then buckle up for Project ZIMBABWE…