Liberation Day
We were all looking forward to Liberation Day. We even had something of a celebration planned. Honestly, we thought Trump would do a flat tariff. Maybe something in the 10-20% range. Instead, he came out swinging. He literally carpet bombed every CUSIP. We don’t blame him. These tariffs are the right thing to do—though he…
EMs Curling Up…
Since mid-to-late 2024 we have been banging the table on EMs, specifically Turkey, Colombia, Brazil and China. See issues 197 and 209 for China; 210 and 200 for LatAm. YTD the latter 3 have been on a tear with China up 25%, Brazil up nearly 13%, and Colombia up 22%. While stretched in short term…
Colombia and Brazil are perking up…
Last week we left you on the topic of Brazil, so LatAm has been on our mind all week, especially with Trump laying out a heavy dose of FAFO during the week… Lets rehash…This week began with a bang in Latin America as Trump came out swinging on Colombia after they refused to accept a…
Fund Flows Flip
Things may be light over the next couple weeks as we are in South Florida taking meetings during the annual iConnections pilgrimage. In our typical fashion, we don’t pay the 20k entry price to roam the halls, but rather sit with a cold beer at a local bar and laugh as the sleeveless vests descend…
Mean-reversion is imminent…
Last week, we showed the 1 chart to rule them all. It was the chart of Q4/Q1 of 2021/2022 overlayed with the current market tracking almost perfectly. Since then, this year has tracked reasonably well (shocking…). If the comparison holds, then the selling starts this week when everyone gets back from vacation. Though, we’re willing…
November 10, 2024, Vol. 200
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