A Bearish PSA, Part Duex
By now most KEDM readers get how bearish we are. We are not going to regurgitate it; we’ve beat that horse to its bloody death. But as we’ve talked to 50+ hediges over the past week, the common response is “sure I am bearish, but we are 1 tweet away from a tariff deal and…
Correlations to 1
Short week, so it’ll be a short, data-only KEDM this week. Besides, nothing is going to change our view over the coming weeks. Sure, a TON of volatility but our thinking remains the same. This tariff story is an undercard to upcoming big govt credit/PE/private credit/refi/endowment unwind. We are headed into a trader and ED…
An Important Gloom and Doom PSA….
It’s said that there’s no such thing as a quadruple bottom in finance. That’s terrifying as TLT (yeah, we know only retail track it…) looks to be teasing a 4th bottom. We’re increasingly of the view that TLT fails. When that happens, we really don’t know WTF happens. Just think about all the things that…
More Bear Porn…
Once you look at this chart, you simply cannot unsee it. Our good friend, Kevin “The Macro Tourist” Muir sent this to us during the Wednesday Fed smash. It accurately predicted the subsequent ripper on Friday. If it goes to analog, it likely continues for a few days, then death. Kevin has been harping on…
De-gross, De-gross, De-gross…
Almost three months ago, we noted KEDM was in full harvest mode, as we culled the herd and moved to center-book. We even pruned some center-book names—though, our focus was on purging anything illiquid, stuff we’d be hard-pressed to sell in a real correlation-1 scenario. We wanted to de-gross in a major way. Admittedly,…
August 4, 2024, Vol. 187
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May 26th, 2024, Vol. 178
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Harvest Time!!!
Turning to the markets, we don’t make market calls here at KEDM but we can’t help feel something a bit off in the market. The fukwits seem back in charge. Generally we are all for taking money from the crayon eaters but it feels a bit different this time around. Breadth is still ok’ish but…