Trump 2.0
Turning to the markets, the secret to successful investing is the art of having strong views, loosely held. For the better part of our careers, we’ve been bearish bonds. “Project Zimbabwe” and all that jazz. However, we’re open to other views… Over the past month, we have been astounded by the progress made by Trump,…
Mean-reversion is imminent…
Last week, we showed the 1 chart to rule them all. It was the chart of Q4/Q1 of 2021/2022 overlayed with the current market tracking almost perfectly. Since then, this year has tracked reasonably well (shocking…). If the comparison holds, then the selling starts this week when everyone gets back from vacation. Though, we’re willing…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
LatAm will roar…
Trump won!! Naturally, we wonder if we’re positioned right for what comes next. What does Round 2 look like?? Is it like Round 1 where he spends most of the day golfing, and occasionally tweeting about how great the market is?? (Remember those 150bps rippers every afternoon??) Or does he actually try and Make America…
Paulo Macro Kliff Notes
We want to thank Paulo Macro for joining us on Friday for our “All Things Macro” Happy Hour. Beer and wine were flowing and we jumped into a ton of interesting topics like Paulo’s “New Big Short”, a deep dive into inflation, US Dollar, fiscal driving monetary, and of course commodities. Rather than offer the…
June 23, 2024, Vol. 182
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This Market Feels Spooky…
We’re increasingly of the view that we may now be approaching a rough patch, possibly even the end of the road in terms of this economic cycle (March 2020 to fall 2024??). In our careers, near the top, every investor always says something baggy like… Given the “Project Zimbabwe” framework at play, that fall may…