An Important Gloom and Doom PSA….
It’s said that there’s no such thing as a quadruple bottom in finance. That’s terrifying as TLT (yeah, we know only retail track it…) looks to be teasing a 4th bottom. We’re increasingly of the view that TLT fails. When that happens, we really don’t know WTF happens. Just think about all the things that…
Trump 2.0
Turning to the markets, the secret to successful investing is the art of having strong views, loosely held. For the better part of our careers, we’ve been bearish bonds. “Project Zimbabwe” and all that jazz. However, we’re open to other views… Over the past month, we have been astounded by the progress made by Trump,…
Where Did the Margin Go??
Our thinking hasn’t changed since last week, but this week’s price action is worth revisiting. In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that the wheels were coming off the tech bubble and spending on networking was about to fall off a cliff, to…
More Bear Porn…
Once you look at this chart, you simply cannot unsee it. Our good friend, Kevin “The Macro Tourist” Muir sent this to us during the Wednesday Fed smash. It accurately predicted the subsequent ripper on Friday. If it goes to analog, it likely continues for a few days, then death. Kevin has been harping on…
October 6, 2024, Vol. 195
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Bond Quickie
Last we left you, we were talking about how the FED and bonds were fuct and EMs were likely the recipients of a flip in fund flows. Two weeks don’t make a trend but that sure seemed timely as TLT continues to roll on the back of made-up NFP numbers, while EMs (i.e. China) went…
EMs Take the Spotlight
JPOW pulled the trigger on re-engaging Project Zimbabwe. We’ve been banging the table on the peasants getting carved up, hence our de-grossing, but we were a bit surprised on how trigger happy he was with equity markets clipping highs. Just goes to show how bad the FED is fuct. I tweeted this out earlier…
September 22, 2024, Vol. 194
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