Tina died in 2025…
Speaking of tops, on January 12, we posted an eerie chart of CSCO against the last remaining generals left in the markets using SMH as the proxy (we urge you to re-read here). Let’s revisit: “In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that…
Where Did the Margin Go??
Our thinking hasn’t changed since last week, but this week’s price action is worth revisiting. In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that the wheels were coming off the tech bubble and spending on networking was about to fall off a cliff, to…
Mean-reversion is imminent…
Last week, we showed the 1 chart to rule them all. It was the chart of Q4/Q1 of 2021/2022 overlayed with the current market tracking almost perfectly. Since then, this year has tracked reasonably well (shocking…). If the comparison holds, then the selling starts this week when everyone gets back from vacation. Though, we’re willing…
More Bear Porn…
Once you look at this chart, you simply cannot unsee it. Our good friend, Kevin “The Macro Tourist” Muir sent this to us during the Wednesday Fed smash. It accurately predicted the subsequent ripper on Friday. If it goes to analog, it likely continues for a few days, then death. Kevin has been harping on…
The Bell is Ringing…
The commentary will be quite light this week (i.e. non-existent) as our entire team is nursing hangovers from our annual holiday party last night. Needless to say, our thinking hasn’t changed much since our piece last week. If anything we kept hearing even more bells ringing the top this week, as Mike Saylor and Palantir…
December 8, 2024, Vol. 203
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Bear Porn…
Let’s turn to the markets. Since early summer, KEDM went into full “harvest mode,” cleaving off the chaff and moved to center book. We weren’t outright bearish but envisioned volatility coming into play over summer and into the elections. While that didn’t serve us well in the short-term (looking at you offshore…) we’d rather err…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
Failing Rallies…
As you know, we’ve turned bearish. We’re not raging bears, because of “Project Zimbabwe” and all of that stuff. In fact, we think equity markets are dramatically higher, looking out a few years. That said, we think there’s a stumble first, and while everyone is getting excited about 25 or maybe even 50bps of Fed…
August 25, 2024, Vol. 190
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