December 8, 2024, Vol. 203
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Bear Porn…
Let’s turn to the markets. Since early summer, KEDM went into full “harvest mode,” cleaving off the chaff and moved to center book. We weren’t outright bearish but envisioned volatility coming into play over summer and into the elections. While that didn’t serve us well in the short-term (looking at you offshore…) we’d rather err…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
Failing Rallies…
As you know, we’ve turned bearish. We’re not raging bears, because of “Project Zimbabwe” and all of that stuff. In fact, we think equity markets are dramatically higher, looking out a few years. That said, we think there’s a stumble first, and while everyone is getting excited about 25 or maybe even 50bps of Fed…
August 25, 2024, Vol. 190
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De-gross, De-gross, De-gross…
Almost three months ago, we noted KEDM was in full harvest mode, as we culled the herd and moved to center-book. We even pruned some center-book names—though, our focus was on purging anything illiquid, stuff we’d be hard-pressed to sell in a real correlation-1 scenario. We wanted to de-gross in a major way. Admittedly,…
Paulo Macro Kliff Notes
We want to thank Paulo Macro for joining us on Friday for our “All Things Macro” Happy Hour. Beer and wine were flowing and we jumped into a ton of interesting topics like Paulo’s “New Big Short”, a deep dive into inflation, US Dollar, fiscal driving monetary, and of course commodities. Rather than offer the…
This Market Feels Spooky…
We’re increasingly of the view that we may now be approaching a rough patch, possibly even the end of the road in terms of this economic cycle (March 2020 to fall 2024??). In our careers, near the top, every investor always says something baggy like… Given the “Project Zimbabwe” framework at play, that fall may…
Times Are A Changin’….
We’re changing our tune a bit here at KEDM. After spending years alone in the desert thinking that Fiscal trumps everything else, and laughing at all the recession lunatics who were shorting at the lows in 2022, we now feel that our desert island is getting a bit crowded. Too many Macro bros suddenly agree…
Harvest Time!!!
Turning to the markets, we don’t make market calls here at KEDM but we can’t help feel something a bit off in the market. The fukwits seem back in charge. Generally we are all for taking money from the crayon eaters but it feels a bit different this time around. Breadth is still ok’ish but…