Offshore Is Getting Cheap…
We’re in Zurich and then Geneva, after a week in Oslo at the Pareto Energy Conference. It was crowded, but we haven’t seen this much emotional pain outside of a funeral. A look at the below chart will give you a sense of why everyone is so dour. Then again, if your book even sort…
Uranium Update from WNA…
We had a busy week at the annual Uranium conference – WNA London – tons of meetings with traders, miners, fuel suppliers, technical specialists, rector suppliers, IAEA executives. We met practically every part of the supply chain. Overall, the mood was upbeat as the fundamentals of the thesis are playing out even better than most…
Uranium Earnings Are Flowing In…
We thought we’d check in on a sector that seems to have the wind at its back. Our yellow friend had major earnings this week, i.e. Kazatomprom earnings, and if you are invested, then you also had a “Happy Friday” thanks to our buddies in Kazakhstan. While we are not going to bore you to…
Failing Rallies…
As you know, we’ve turned bearish. We’re not raging bears, because of “Project Zimbabwe” and all of that stuff. In fact, we think equity markets are dramatically higher, looking out a few years. That said, we think there’s a stumble first, and while everyone is getting excited about 25 or maybe even 50bps of Fed…
China Is Looking Up…
This quarter’s 13Fs was non-eventful. As we’ve noted ad-nauseum, we went “full harvest” in recent months and cleaved off the chaff. Things get wacky at the tops and unless its related to gold, new CUSIPs just aren’t interesting. The only small nugget that caught our eye was the ongoing bull campaign by Tepper (Appaloosa) and…
Offshore Earnings
We haven’t been exactly bullish in recent months. We aren’t doom and gloomers either, but regime changes tend to create markets where macro Trumps the micro. Are the past 10 days, just a precursor to the coming wackiness and onslaught of “100-year, one-in-a-lifetime moves” that will likely come weekly?? We are in the 4-6 month…
De-gross, De-gross, De-gross…
Almost three months ago, we noted KEDM was in full harvest mode, as we culled the herd and moved to center-book. We even pruned some center-book names—though, our focus was on purging anything illiquid, stuff we’d be hard-pressed to sell in a real correlation-1 scenario. We wanted to de-gross in a major way. Admittedly,…
Dino Inflation…
Another slow summer week with no fat pitches in sight and nothing much to write about, just more wacky moves and rotations in a summer tape. Our TWTR feeds are filled with Trump-trade rhetoric and it’s pretty consensus at this point. We get it, Trump and JD are looking for low rates to make us…
Just Don’t Yell Fire…
We thought it would be a good idea to bring in some thoughts from our fellow KEDM’ers. First up on our list is Erik over at YWR (we subscribe and urge you too as well). You may remember Erik from our Project Zimbabwe Happy Hour back in 2023. Erik is an ex-Passport Capital (John Burbank)…
Get long Wall Street Bets…
We want to be long the businesses that are best poised to profit from the coming inflationary regime and we’ve been studying past inflationary cycles to see what’s worked best. One seemingly obvious theme that we’ve found across different inflationary regimes is an increased appetite for speculation. As their purchasing power deteriorates, people consistently turn…