Failing Rallies…
As you know, we’ve turned bearish. We’re not raging bears, because of “Project Zimbabwe” and all of that stuff. In fact, we think equity markets are dramatically higher, looking out a few years. That said, we think there’s a stumble first, and while everyone is getting excited about 25 or maybe even 50bps of Fed…
China Is Looking Up…
This quarter’s 13Fs was non-eventful. As we’ve noted ad-nauseum, we went “full harvest” in recent months and cleaved off the chaff. Things get wacky at the tops and unless its related to gold, new CUSIPs just aren’t interesting. The only small nugget that caught our eye was the ongoing bull campaign by Tepper (Appaloosa) and…
Offshore Earnings
We haven’t been exactly bullish in recent months. We aren’t doom and gloomers either, but regime changes tend to create markets where macro Trumps the micro. Are the past 10 days, just a precursor to the coming wackiness and onslaught of “100-year, one-in-a-lifetime moves” that will likely come weekly?? We are in the 4-6 month…
De-gross, De-gross, De-gross…
Almost three months ago, we noted KEDM was in full harvest mode, as we culled the herd and moved to center-book. We even pruned some center-book names—though, our focus was on purging anything illiquid, stuff we’d be hard-pressed to sell in a real correlation-1 scenario. We wanted to de-gross in a major way. Admittedly,…
Dino Inflation…
Another slow summer week with no fat pitches in sight and nothing much to write about, just more wacky moves and rotations in a summer tape. Our TWTR feeds are filled with Trump-trade rhetoric and it’s pretty consensus at this point. We get it, Trump and JD are looking for low rates to make us…
Just Don’t Yell Fire…
We thought it would be a good idea to bring in some thoughts from our fellow KEDM’ers. First up on our list is Erik over at YWR (we subscribe and urge you too as well). You may remember Erik from our Project Zimbabwe Happy Hour back in 2023. Erik is an ex-Passport Capital (John Burbank)…
Get long Wall Street Bets…
We want to be long the businesses that are best poised to profit from the coming inflationary regime and we’ve been studying past inflationary cycles to see what’s worked best. One seemingly obvious theme that we’ve found across different inflationary regimes is an increased appetite for speculation. As their purchasing power deteriorates, people consistently turn…
Paulo Macro Kliff Notes
We want to thank Paulo Macro for joining us on Friday for our “All Things Macro” Happy Hour. Beer and wine were flowing and we jumped into a ton of interesting topics like Paulo’s “New Big Short”, a deep dive into inflation, US Dollar, fiscal driving monetary, and of course commodities. Rather than offer the…
This Market Feels Spooky…
We’re increasingly of the view that we may now be approaching a rough patch, possibly even the end of the road in terms of this economic cycle (March 2020 to fall 2024??). In our careers, near the top, every investor always says something baggy like… Given the “Project Zimbabwe” framework at play, that fall may…
A Boomers Perspective
We are going to start by beating a dead horse here as breadth continues to deteriorate… https://x.com/sentimentrader There are times to be long, and times to step away. We’re in the process of stepping away, continuing our harvest… Since the stock market has become an AI market, (NVDA and not much else—anyone even remember SMCI??)…