Betting on the degens…
Turning to the markets, our themes seem to be kicking into high gear as EMs continue to suck flows out of the US. We expect some rips out of the US, but there is more pain ahead in ’25 as TINA (for US growth) doesn’t just take a month to die, this will take some…
Where Did the Margin Go??
Our thinking hasn’t changed since last week, but this week’s price action is worth revisiting. In summary, we’re bears. Now raging Kodiak Bears… We were just starting out in this business when we realized that the wheels were coming off the tech bubble and spending on networking was about to fall off a cliff, to…
More Bear Porn…
Once you look at this chart, you simply cannot unsee it. Our good friend, Kevin “The Macro Tourist” Muir sent this to us during the Wednesday Fed smash. It accurately predicted the subsequent ripper on Friday. If it goes to analog, it likely continues for a few days, then death. Kevin has been harping on…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
EMs Take the Spotlight
JPOW pulled the trigger on re-engaging Project Zimbabwe. We’ve been banging the table on the peasants getting carved up, hence our de-grossing, but we were a bit surprised on how trigger happy he was with equity markets clipping highs. Just goes to show how bad the FED is fuct. I tweeted this out earlier…
September 22, 2024, Vol. 194
The admin of this site has disabled this download item page.
Dino Inflation…
Another slow summer week with no fat pitches in sight and nothing much to write about, just more wacky moves and rotations in a summer tape. Our TWTR feeds are filled with Trump-trade rhetoric and it’s pretty consensus at this point. We get it, Trump and JD are looking for low rates to make us…
July 21, 2024, Vol. 185
The admin of this site has disabled this download item page.
Get long Wall Street Bets…
We want to be long the businesses that are best poised to profit from the coming inflationary regime and we’ve been studying past inflationary cycles to see what’s worked best. One seemingly obvious theme that we’ve found across different inflationary regimes is an increased appetite for speculation. As their purchasing power deteriorates, people consistently turn…
June 30, 2024, Vol. 183
The admin of this site has disabled this download item page.