Enjoying My Raki…
As mentioned last week, we shut off our screens and are writing to you from Crete. Not much to report on as bonds remain our focus. TLT continues to drip below 85 while global yields are breaking out. This is still one of the worst risk/reward setups we have seen for quite some time. It’s…
The Bell is Ringing…
The commentary will be quite light this week (i.e. non-existent) as our entire team is nursing hangovers from our annual holiday party last night. Needless to say, our thinking hasn’t changed much since our piece last week. If anything we kept hearing even more bells ringing the top this week, as Mike Saylor and Palantir…
Bear Porn…
Let’s turn to the markets. Since early summer, KEDM went into full “harvest mode,” cleaving off the chaff and moved to center book. We weren’t outright bearish but envisioned volatility coming into play over summer and into the elections. While that didn’t serve us well in the short-term (looking at you offshore…) we’d rather err…
The World Is a Rollin…
Last week, we talked about why South America may finally have its bull market, after over a decade of persistent bear markets. This week, we want to break with past traditions and simply give you a bunch of charts—bearish charts. While we are bullish longer-term, we also recognize that timing is everything. Quite honestly, a…
Failing Rallies…
As you know, we’ve turned bearish. We’re not raging bears, because of “Project Zimbabwe” and all of that stuff. In fact, we think equity markets are dramatically higher, looking out a few years. That said, we think there’s a stumble first, and while everyone is getting excited about 25 or maybe even 50bps of Fed…
August 25, 2024, Vol. 190
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De-gross, De-gross, De-gross…
Almost three months ago, we noted KEDM was in full harvest mode, as we culled the herd and moved to center-book. We even pruned some center-book names—though, our focus was on purging anything illiquid, stuff we’d be hard-pressed to sell in a real correlation-1 scenario. We wanted to de-gross in a major way. Admittedly,…
This Market Feels Spooky…
We’re increasingly of the view that we may now be approaching a rough patch, possibly even the end of the road in terms of this economic cycle (March 2020 to fall 2024??). In our careers, near the top, every investor always says something baggy like… Given the “Project Zimbabwe” framework at play, that fall may…
June 16, 2024, Vol. 181
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Harvest Time!!!
Turning to the markets, we don’t make market calls here at KEDM but we can’t help feel something a bit off in the market. The fukwits seem back in charge. Generally we are all for taking money from the crayon eaters but it feels a bit different this time around. Breadth is still ok’ish but…